Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Real Salt Lake host San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with contrasting recent records setting the scene. Real Salt Lake have 1 win and 4 defeats in their last 5, while San Jose are unbeaten in their last 5. The model’s likeliest result is a Real Salt Lake win, but the teams’ recent form and positions in the Western Conference make this a meeting between sides arriving from different directions.
The game is at Rio Tinto Stadium, Sandy, with kickoff at 9:30 p.m. ET. The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its forecast includes a home win, an away victory and a draw.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Real Salt Lake win, at 43.9%. The expected-goals figures are Real Salt Lake 1.6 and San Jose Earthquakes 1.6. Its leading exact score is 1-1; it also lists 1-2 and 2-1.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 58.8%, against under 2.5 goals at 41.2%. It gives both teams a score at 61.2%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 38.8%. The leading exact score has the teams level, even as the model places a home win first among its match outcomes.
Form and standings
Real Salt Lake’s recent sequence is LWLLL, amounting to 1 win and 4 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Philadelphia Union on October 10. They sit 11th in Western Conference in the Western Conference with 32 points from 28 games.