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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

Research workspace

Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes: Match Analysis & Model Review

Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes finished level at 1-1 in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, after Real Salt Lake created more expected goals but could not hold its lead. The sides were goalless at the break, and San Jose Earthquakes found an equaliser in stoppage time to complete a 1-1 draw. The late goal meant Real Salt Lake could not turn its advantage into a win.

The shot and expected-goals figures show that Real Salt Lake had the greater attacking output, while San Jose Earthquakes stayed in the contest and scored at the end.

How it unfolded

The first half ended 0-0. Real Salt Lake moved in front in the 79th minute, when Luc De Fougerolles made it 1-0. That advantage lasted until the 90th minute (+4): Jack Jasinski scored for San Jose Earthquakes to make it 1-1. As the sequence of goals shows, only Real Salt Lake ever led; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

The shot count was 22 to 16 in Real Salt Lake's favour, with 8 shots on target for Real Salt Lake and 2 for San Jose Earthquakes. The expected-goals figures were 2.03 for Real Salt Lake and 1.02 for San Jose Earthquakes. Real Salt Lake had more shots and shots on target, as well as the higher expected-goals figure, but the final score remained level.

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Possession was close, with Real Salt Lake at 51% and San Jose Earthquakes at 49%; the corner count was level at 5 apiece. The saves figures were 6 for San Jose Earthquakes' goalkeeper and 1 for Real Salt Lake's. The teams scored two goals in all, with Real Salt Lake scoring one goal and San Jose Earthquakes scoring one goal.

Standout performers

L. De Fougerolles was Real Salt Lake's best-rated player, earning 7.8 after scoring 1 goal. The goal put Real Salt Lake ahead, but could not secure the win.

For San Jose Earthquakes, Jack Jasinski received the best rating, 8.1, and also recorded 1 goal. The late finish brought the score level after Real Salt Lake had led.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities were estimates: the model gave Real Salt Lake a 43.9% chance of winning, a draw 24.6%, and a San Jose Earthquakes win 31.6%. Its most likely outcome was Real Salt Lake to win, but it assigned the eventual draw 24.6%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score 1-1 was the model's 1st-likeliest score.

The match therefore landed on the model's first-ranked exact score, while the outcome differed from its most likely result. Real Salt Lake led late, and San Jose Earthquakes scored at the end to share the points.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes

Wed, Oct 14 · 9:30 PM ET · Rio Tinto Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 79'Luc De Fougerolles1–0
  • 90'+4Jack Jasinski1–1

The model before the game

Real Salt Lake
43.9%
Draw
24.6%
San Jose Earthquakes
31.6%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Real Salt LakeStatisticSan Jose Earthquakes
1saves6
22shots16
5corners5
51%possession49%
2.03expected goals1.02
8shots on target2
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