Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Atlanta Braves 3–4 Philadelphia Phillies. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves in MLB on Wednesday, September 30, with first pitch at 2:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game. Their latest results came against different opponents, but Goalorithm’s estimates put the focus on a close projected scoring gap.
What the model expects
The model gives the Atlanta Braves 60.7% to win and the Philadelphia Phillies 39.3%; these are estimates, not certainties. The model’s likelier result is an Atlanta Braves win. Its expected runs are 4.6 for the Atlanta Braves and 4 for the Philadelphia Phillies, 8.6 in all. The model gives the Atlanta Braves 40.2% and the Philadelphia Phillies 25% to win by two runs or more.
Form and standings
The Atlanta Braves went 2-3 in their last 5 games, with 20 runs scored and 20 allowed; the latest was a 5-3 road loss to the Miami Marlins on September 27. The Philadelphia Phillies went 1-4 in their last 5 games, with 10 runs scored and 26 allowed; the latest was a 7-3 home win over the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27.