Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees in MLB on Wednesday, October 7, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model's likelier result is a New York Yankees win, while the Tampa Bay Rays have the better record.
The model's figures are estimates, not certainties.
What the model expects
The model gives the New York Yankees a 57.7% chance to win and the Tampa Bay Rays a 42.3% chance. It projects 4.5 runs for the New York Yankees and 4 for the Tampa Bay Rays, with 8.5 in all.
For a win by two runs or more, the model gives the New York Yankees a 37.7% chance and the Tampa Bay Rays a 27.1% chance.
Form and standings
The New York Yankees are 93-68 overall this season, with a run differential of +138; the New York Yankees have 739 runs scored and 601 allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays are 98-64, with a run differential of +86; the Tampa Bay Rays have 736 runs scored and 650 allowed.
The Tampa Bay Rays went 2-3 in their last 5 games, with results listed most recent first as LWWLL. The Tampa Bay Rays had 23 runs scored and 23 allowed over that span, and their latest listed result was a 7-3 road loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on September 27.