Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres in MLB on Wednesday, October 7, with first pitch at 10:00 p.m. ET. Both clubs have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game. Goalorithm’s model gives the Milwaukee Brewers the likelier result, while projecting runs for both teams.
The Milwaukee Brewers come in on a run of wins, and the Milwaukee Brewers have the better record. Those are the central threads ahead of a matchup where the model’s expected scoring is close, even as its win probabilities lean toward Milwaukee.
What the model expects
The model’s figures are estimates, not certainties. It gives the San Diego Padres 42.8% to win and the Milwaukee Brewers 57.2%; the model’s likelier result is a Milwaukee Brewers win.
The model projects 4.1 runs for the San Diego Padres and 4.7 for the Milwaukee Brewers, with 8.8 overall. Its chance of a win by two runs or more is 27.1% for the San Diego Padres and 38.7% for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Form and standings
The San Diego Padres finished the regular season 91-71, with a run differential of +41 and 722 runs scored and 681 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers finished 103-59, with a run differential of +214 and 832 runs scored and 618 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers have the better record.
The Milwaukee Brewers went 5-0 in their last 5 games, with 26 runs scored and 12 allowed; their results, most recent first, were WWWWW. The latest was a 6-4 home win over the St. Louis Cardinals on September 27. The Milwaukee Brewers bring 5 straight wins into the postseason game.