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Game analysis · MLB

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Philadelphia Phillies 4-3 Atlanta Braves: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 4-3 win for the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves in MLB, Wednesday, September 30: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

On Wednesday, September 30 in MLB, the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves 4-3. The Philadelphia Phillies hit 3 home runs, while the Atlanta Braves had none, and the game was decided by one run.

The Philadelphia Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez pitched 6⅔ innings, allowing 6 hits and 3 runs, with 5 walks and 6 strikeouts on 116 pitches; the Atlanta Braves starter Tyler Mahle pitched 7 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 run, with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts on 95 pitches.

The numbers

The Philadelphia Phillies finished with 12 hits and the Atlanta Braves had 9; neither team made an error. The Philadelphia Phillies drew 1 walk, compared with 6 for the Atlanta Braves, while both teams struck out 9 times.

The teams scored seven runs in all, below the 8.6 the model projected.

Top performers

For the Philadelphia Phillies, Bryce Harper went 2 for 5 with a home run, 2 RBIs and 1 run scored. Philadelphia Phillies teammate Alec Bohm went 2 for 4 with a home run, 1 RBI and 1 run scored, and Philadelphia Phillies teammate Kyle Schwarber went 1 for 5 with a home run, 1 RBI and 1 run scored.

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For the Atlanta Braves, Matt Olson went 1 for 4 with 2 RBIs.

How the model called it

Before the game, the model gave the Atlanta Braves 60.7% to win and the Philadelphia Phillies 39.3%. Its favorite was the Atlanta Braves to win; it gave the eventual winner 39.3%, so the result went against the model's favorite. These probabilities are estimates, not certainties.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

MLB

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Wed, Sep 30 · 2:00 PM ET · Truist Park

Final

3–4

The model before the game

Atlanta Braves
60.7%
Philadelphia Phillies
39.3%

The result went against the model's favourite.

The numbers

Atlanta BravesStatisticPhiladelphia Phillies
9hits12
6walks1
0errors0
0home runs3
9strikeouts9
Open the Game Center

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