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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Orlando City SC 2-1 New York City FC: Match Analysis & Model Review

Orlando City SC 2-1 New York City FC in Major League Soccer, Saturday, October 24: how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 26, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-1 win for Orlando City SC over New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with 1-1 at half-time and 2-1 the final score. Orlando City SC scored two goals and New York City FC scored one goal, making three goals in all. The result gave Orlando City SC the win, while the score at the interval had the teams level.

The final score captures a match that was still undecided at half-time. By full-time, Orlando City SC had turned that level position into a win over New York City FC. The available match facts establish the score at the break and the final outcome, without giving a sequence of goal events.

The numbers

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Orlando City SC a 43% chance of winning, a draw 24.9%, and New York City FC a 32% chance of winning. These probabilities are estimates. They describe the model's view before the match, rather than a measure of how the game developed once play began.

The match itself finished with Orlando City SC winning, following a level half-time score. The final result is therefore the outcome recorded on the pitch; the pre-match percentages belong to the model's forecast. Keeping those two things distinct makes the model's call clear without treating its probabilities as a description of the match events.

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How the model called it

The model's most likely outcome was Orlando City SC to win, and it gave that outcome 43%. The model's most likely outcome happened. Its outcome call was right: Orlando City SC won. The final score was the model's 3rd-likeliest score, giving the model's score assessment a separate place from its prediction of the match outcome.

That distinction matters here because the model's view about who would win and its position on the exact score are not the same claim. The result aligned with its stated most likely outcome, while the final score is identified separately in the model's ordering. The model called the winner correctly; its score ranking adds another piece of context, rather than changing what happened in the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC

Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Exploria Stadium

Full time

2–1

Half-time 1–1

The model before the game

Orlando City SC
43.1%
Draw
24.9%
New York City FC
32%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

Open the Match Center

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