Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Charlotte host CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Both arrive after away draws: a 2-2 away draw with Philadelphia Union on October 17, and a 1-1 away draw with Seattle Sounders on October 17. The model’s likeliest result is a Charlotte win, though its forecast also gives weight to a draw and an away win.
The fixture brings together sides with different positions in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte are 5th in Eastern Conference, while CF Montreal are 15th in Eastern Conference; their recent sequences and the head-to-head record provide further context for a meeting in which the model favours the hosts without ruling out either alternative.
What the model expects
The model’s match projections are estimates. Its outcome order is a Charlotte win (49.6%), then a CF Montreal win (26.3%), then a draw (24.1%), with expected goals of 2.1 for Charlotte and 1 for CF Montreal. The goals forecast gives over 2.5 goals at 58.8% and under 2.5 goals at 41.2%, while the model gives both teams to score 55.2%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 44.8%.
The listed exact-score possibilities are 1-1 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.4%). They include a draw and home wins. The broader outcome order also includes an away win, so the score selections do not cover every result in the match forecast. The model’s clearest signal is its preference for a home victory, while its goal projections and score selections leave room for different ways the game could unfold.