Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
New York Red Bulls host Inter Miami in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24 at 5:30 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result an away win. The sides arrive after different latest results: a 2-0 home defeat to Toronto FC on October 17, while a 3-1 away win against Atlanta United FC on October 17.
The model expects goals and gives both teams a chance of scoring. Its probabilities are estimates; its view of the result is an Inter Miami win.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes from likeliest down are an Inter Miami win (45.2%), then a New York Red Bulls win (30.9%), then a draw (23.8%). Its expected-goals figures are 1.7 for New York Red Bulls and 2.1 for Inter Miami, setting out the expected scoring contribution for each side.
For the total-goals line, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 72.4% and under 2.5 goals at 27.6%. It puts both teams scoring at 71.4%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 28.6%.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 at 9.2%, 1-2 at 7.9% and 2-2 at 6.8%. Those scores include a draw and an away win, in keeping with the model's result outlook.
Form and standings
New York Red Bulls' last 5 results, listed most recent first, are LLWLW. That sequence brings 2 wins and 3 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded; the latest entry was a 2-0 home defeat to Toronto FC on October 17. They are on 2 defeats in a row.