Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Columbus Crew host Toronto FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with the model giving Columbus Crew its likeliest outcome but leaving a substantial share of its forecast on a draw or an away win. The sides arrive after wins, and the model’s expected-goals figures point to a greater attacking return for Columbus Crew.
The match is at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The probabilities are estimates; the model’s figures frame a contest where a home victory leads its outcome list, but does not dominate it.
What the model expects
The model gives Columbus Crew 41.6%, a draw 30.7% and Toronto FC 27.7%. Its ordering is a Columbus Crew win (41.6%), then a draw (30.7%), then a Toronto FC win (27.7%). That makes a Columbus Crew win the model’s likeliest result, while the draw remains a notable part of the forecast and the away side retains a meaningful chance.
The model expects Columbus Crew to produce 1.5 expected goals and Toronto FC 0.9. Its goals forecast gives under 2.5 goals at 57.2% and over 2.5 goals at 42.8%. It assigns 45.5% to both teams scoring and 54.5% to at least one side failing to score. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%) and 1-0 (11.9%); the leading scoreline is level, while the other listed outcomes feature a clean sheet.
Form and standings
Columbus Crew have WWLWW across their recent games, with 4 wins and 1 defeat and 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-0 away win against FC Cincinnati on October 18, and they are 2 wins in a row. That run gives the hosts a positive immediate backdrop, with their latest outing adding another clean-sheet win to the record.