Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
New England Revolution host New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 28, with kick-off at 7:30 p.m. ET. The model gives New England the likeliest outcome, but its forecast still leaves a substantial chance of either a draw or an away win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a New England Revolution win, and its full order is a New England Revolution win (41.2%), then a New York Red Bulls win (31.1%), then a draw (27.7%). Expected goals stand at 1.8 for New England and 1.1 for New York, pointing to a projected scoring edge for the hosts without ruling out a close contest.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 52.9% and under 2.5 goals at 47.1%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 53.8%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 46.2%. Its likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 12.5%, followed by 2-1 at 9.2% and 1-0 at 8.9%. Those scorelines offer contrasting possibilities: a level game, a narrow New England win, or a home victory with no reply.
Form and standings
New England's recent sequence is WWLLW, with 3 wins and 2 defeats across that run and 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 home win against Chicago Fire on October 17, and they arrive on 2 wins in a row. That last clean-sheet win gives the hosts a positive immediate result to carry into the fixture, while the wider spell has included defeats as well as victories.