Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Orlando City SC host New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 24, with both clubs arriving after contrasting latest results. Orlando City SC’s latest was a 4-1 home win against DC United on October 17, while New York City FC’s latest was a 1-1 home draw with Los Angeles FC on October 17.
The match is at Exploria Stadium, Orlando, with kick-off at 7:30 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome probabilities are estimates: it gives Orlando City SC 39.7%, a draw 29.5% and New York City FC 30.8%.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an Orlando City SC win. Its full ordering is an Orlando City SC win (39.7%), then a New York City FC win (30.8%), then a draw (29.5%). The model expects 1.5 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.2 for New York City FC.
The leading exact-score possibility is 1-1 at 13.2%; the other listed scores are 0-0 at 9.3% and 2-1 at 8.6%. The model gives over 2.5 goals at 51.8% and under 2.5 goals at 48.2%. It assigns 55.1% to both teams scoring and 44.9% to at least one side failing to score. That range of projected scores includes a level outcome as well as results with goals for either side.
Form and standings
Orlando City SC sit 7th in Eastern Conference with 41 points from 30 games, and New York City FC sit 11th in Eastern Conference with 34 points from 30 games; Orlando City SC sit above New York City FC. Orlando City SC’s last 5 results, most recent first, are WDWLL. That run amounts to 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded; the club are unbeaten in their last 3. Its latest entry was a 4-1 home win against DC United on October 17.