Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
New York City FC host Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 28, with the model's likeliest outcome an Atlanta United FC win. New York City FC are on a winless run, while the latest meeting between these teams ended level. Kick-off is 7:30 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium, New York.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are an Atlanta United FC win (39.8%), then a New York City FC win (32.5%), then a draw (27.7%). Its expected-goals figures are 1.4 for New York City FC and 1.6 for Atlanta United FC, with the model projecting goals for both sides.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 57.9% and under 2.5 goals at 42.1% for the goal line. It puts both teams to score at 60.3%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 39.7%. Its likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 12.4%; 1-2 follows at 8.4%, with 0-0 at 7.5%.
Form and standings
New York City FC have been without a win in their last 5. Their recent sequence is DLLDL, amounting to 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-1 home draw with Los Angeles FC on October 17. The sequence includes draws but no win, and their latest match also finished level. They will be looking to turn that run into a better result.
Atlanta United FC arrive with LWLDW, a sequence made up of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. Their record across those matches is 8 goals scored and 8 conceded, and their most recent match was a 3-1 home defeat to Inter Miami on October 17. The sequence includes both wins and defeats, with a draw also in the record.