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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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DC United 2-1 New York Red Bulls: Match Analysis & Model Review

DC United 2-1 New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

DC United beat New York Red Bulls 2-1 in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, after leading 2-0 at half-time. New York Red Bulls had more possession and took more shots, but DC United finished with the win. The match produced three goals.

The half-time score shows where the decisive advantage stood at the interval; the final score records New York Red Bulls getting on the scoresheet, without overturning it. The possession and shot totals give context to the result, while the expected-goals figures offer another measure of the chances each side created.

The numbers

New York Red Bulls had 69% possession to DC United’s 31%. That was a clear difference in control of the ball, but it did not translate into a higher expected-goals figure: DC United recorded 1.31, against New York Red Bulls’ 0.62. The measures describe different parts of the contest; together, they show that possession alone did not define the attacking threat.

The shot count was 7 for New York Red Bulls and 4 for DC United. DC United put 3 attempts on target, while New York Red Bulls managed 2. Those figures set the volume of attempts against their accuracy, with DC United finishing the match with the goals that secured the result. Each side had 3 corners, and the save counts were 2 for DC United and 1 for New York Red Bulls.

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Standout performers

DC United’s best-rated player was S. Hefti, whose 7.7 rating came with 1 goal. The goal gave his performance a direct connection to the scoring that decided the match.

For New York Red Bulls, C. Cowell was the best-rated player, with 7.1. That recognition came in a match where New York Red Bulls held the larger share of possession, but the final result went to DC United.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, the model gave DC United 38.4% to win, with the draw at 24.8% and a New York Red Bulls win at 36.8%. Its pre-match favourite was DC United to win; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The scoreline was the model's 2nd-likeliest score. That places the exact result differently from the model’s most likely outcome, while the model’s broader call on which side would win came through. The result also reflects the contrast in the match figures: New York Red Bulls had more of the ball and attempted more shots, but DC United led at half-time and held on to win.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

DC United vs New York Red Bulls

Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET · Audi Field

Full time

2–1

Half-time 2–0

The model before the game

DC United
38.4%
Draw
24.8%
New York Red Bulls
36.8%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

DC UnitedStatisticNew York Red Bulls
2saves1
4shots7
3corners3
31%possession69%
1.31expected goals0.62
3shots on target2
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