Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
DC United host New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with the teams arriving off contrasting results: a 4-0 away defeat to Inter Miami on October 10, while a 4-1 home win against San Diego on October 10. The model's likeliest result is a DC United win, but its forecast leaves room for a close contest and for the visitors to take the points.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a DC United win (43.7%), then a New York Red Bulls win (31.7%), then a draw (24.6%). It projects 1.6 expected goals for DC United and 1.5 for New York Red Bulls, with 1-1 the most likely exact score at 11.5%; 2-1 follows at 8.2%, then 1-2 at 7.6%.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 60.2% and under 2.5 goals at 39.8%. It has both teams scoring at 62.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 37.8%. The forecast therefore allows for goals at both ends, though its leading exact score is level. These are separate views of the match: the outcome probabilities describe who takes the points, while the goals and scoreline estimates sketch possible ways the game could unfold.
Form and standings
DC United have gone LDLDW across their last 5 games, a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest outing ended in a heavy defeat, and the side are without a win in their last 4. That is the immediate backdrop for a fixture in which the model still identifies the hosts as its likeliest winner, without making that outcome certain.