Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Columbus Crew host Charlotte in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The model makes Columbus Crew its likeliest winner, but the forecast also gives Charlotte a substantial chance of taking the points, setting up a contest with no runaway outcome.
What the model expects
The model gives Columbus Crew 44.2%, a draw 24.8% and Charlotte 31%. Its likeliest result is a Columbus Crew win; that is a model estimate, not a certainty. Expected goals stand at 1.6 for Columbus Crew and 1.4 for Charlotte, pointing to a narrow projected margin rather than a wide separation.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 56.9% and under 2.5 goals at 43.1%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 59.3%, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 40.7%. Its most likely exact score is 1-1 at 11.9%, followed by 2-1 at 8.5% and 1-2 at 7.2%.
Form and standings
Columbus arrive after a 3-2 away defeat to Orlando City SC on October 10. Across 5 recent games, their sequence is LWWLL: 2 wins and 3 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. That record leaves them needing a sharper stretch if they are to turn the model’s narrow preference into a result; the latest defeat also gives them something immediate to answer.
Charlotte come in after a 3-2 home win against FC Dallas on October 10. Their recent sequence reads WLWDW, amounting to 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. The visitors’ results have been more productive in that sample, and they have also scored more often, though they have conceded regularly too.