Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Houston Astros 3–7 Chicago White Sox. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Chicago White Sox visit the Houston Astros in MLB on Wednesday, September 30, with first pitch at 5:00 p.m. ET. The regular season is finished, making this a postseason game; the model’s likelier result is a Chicago White Sox win.
What the model expects
The model’s estimates give the Chicago White Sox a 51.6% chance to win and the Houston Astros a 48.4% chance. It projects 4.5 runs for the Houston Astros and 4.7 for the Chicago White Sox, with 9.2 in all.
The model gives the Houston Astros a 31.6% chance to win by two runs or more, and the Chicago White Sox a 34.7% chance to do so.
Form and standings
The Houston Astros finished the regular season at 81-81, with 734 runs scored and 766 allowed and a run differential of -32. The Chicago White Sox finished at 84-78, with 776 runs scored and 720 allowed and a run differential of +56; the Chicago White Sox have the better record.
The Houston Astros went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 37 runs scored and 19 allowed. Most recently, the Houston Astros had a 13-2 road win over the Athletics on September 26. The Chicago White Sox also went 3-2 in their last 5 games, with 29 runs scored and 18 allowed; most recently, the Chicago White Sox had a 4-2 home win over the Colorado Rockies on September 27.