Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: Houston Astros 3–6 Chicago White Sox. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Chicago White Sox visit the Houston Astros in MLB on Tuesday, September 29 for a postseason game, with first pitch at 5:00 p.m. ET. The model gives the Chicago White Sox the likelier result, while its expected-runs projection points to a close game.
What the model expects
These projections are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the Houston Astros a 48.4% chance to win and the Chicago White Sox a 51.6% chance; its likelier result is a Chicago White Sox win. It projects 4.5 runs for the Houston Astros and 4.7 for the Chicago White Sox, 9.2 in all. The model's chance of a win by two runs or more is 31.6% for the Houston Astros and 34.7% for the Chicago White Sox.
Form and standings
The Houston Astros finished the regular season at 81-81, with a run differential of -32 (734 runs scored and 766 allowed). The Chicago White Sox finished at 84-78, with a run differential of +56 (776 runs scored and 720 allowed); the Chicago White Sox have the better record.
The Houston Astros went 3-2 in their last 5 games in their last five, with 37 runs scored and 19 allowed; their latest was a 13-2 road win over the Athletics on September 26. The Chicago White Sox also went 3-2 in their last 5 games in their last five, with 29 runs scored and 18 allowed; their latest was a 4-2 home win over the Colorado Rockies on September 27.