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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

Research workspace

Chicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union: Match Analysis & Model Review

Chicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Philadelphia Union left Chicago Fire with a 3-1 win for Philadelphia Union over Chicago Fire in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14. Chicago were ahead at the interval, but the final score belonged to Philadelphia, who finished with three goals while Chicago had one goal.

The match ended with four goals in all. The scoreline records Philadelphia’s win, while the statistical picture also includes possession for both sides, shots, expected goals and corners.

How it unfolded

Chicago reached half-time with the score at 1-0. The match finished 1-3; the sequence of goals is not specified, so the score at the interval and the final result are the clearest markers of how the contest changed across the game.

The result was a 3-1 win for Philadelphia Union over Chicago Fire. Chicago’s goal left them with one goal, and Philadelphia’s contribution was three goals. Those totals define the final score, though they do not establish when any of the goals arrived.

The numbers

Possession was 46% for Chicago Fire and 54% for Philadelphia Union. The shot counts were 0 for Chicago and 1 for Philadelphia. Neither side registered a shot on target: Chicago had 0, and Philadelphia had 0.

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Expected goals were recorded as 0 for Chicago and 0 for Philadelphia. The corner count was 1 for Chicago and 1 for Philadelphia. These figures describe a match in which the recorded attacking totals sit alongside the goals that decided the result; they do not provide a goal-by-goal account of the scoring.

The numbers offer separate views of the game: possession indicates how play was shared, while shots, shots on target, expected goals and corners register different aspects of attacking activity. The final score remains the decisive measure, with Philadelphia taking the win and Chicago finishing on the losing side.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Chicago a win probability of 36.7%, a draw probability of 23.8%, and Philadelphia a win probability of 39.4%.

Philadelphia Union to win was the model’s most likely outcome, and it assigned that result 39.4%. The match finished with a 3-1 win for Philadelphia Union over Chicago Fire, so the model's most likely outcome happened. The prediction and the outcome aligned: the model had Philadelphia’s win as its leading call before kick-off, and Philadelphia duly took the points.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union

Wed, Oct 14 · 8:30 PM ET · Soldier Field

Full time

1–3

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Chicago Fire
36.7%
Draw
23.8%
Philadelphia Union
39.4%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Chicago FireStatisticPhiladelphia Union
0shots1
1corners1
46%possession54%
0expected goals0
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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