Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Chicago Fire host Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with the model's likeliest result pointing to the visitors. The table has Chicago Fire above Philadelphia Union, while the model's goals lean is over 2.5 goals. Kick-off is 8:30 p.m. ET at Soldier Field, Chicago.
Both sides arrive after wins in their latest outings. The model gives Philadelphia Union the likeliest individual outcome, while its forecast also allows for a Chicago Fire win or a draw. These probabilities are estimates; the numbers point to a contest with goals expected at both ends.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is a Philadelphia Union win. It gives Chicago Fire 35.2%, a draw 24.1% and Philadelphia Union 40.6%. The model gives a Philadelphia Union win 40.6%, above the bookmakers' 38.1%.
The model expects Chicago Fire to score 1.8 and Philadelphia Union to score 2. Its goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 71.5%, against under 2.5 goals at 28.4%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 71.2%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 28.8%. Its likeliest scores are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (7.1%). The central message is the goals lean, with the expected-goals figures suggesting contributions from both teams.
Form and standings
Chicago Fire come into the match with WWWLL: 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 home win against New York City FC on October 10, and they are on 3 wins in a row. The latest result extends a winning sequence after a mixed run across their recent games.