Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Inter Miami host New York City FC in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with kick-off at 7:30 p.m. ET. The model leans toward the hosts, while both teams’ recent results and the projected scoring point to a contest with chances at both ends.
The game is at Nu Stadium, Miami. Inter Miami arrive after a 4-0 home win against DC United on October 10; New York City FC’s latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Chicago Fire on October 10. That contrast gives the hosts a strong platform, but the model’s forecast still leaves room for a draw or an away win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Inter Miami 58%, a draw 21.1% and New York City FC 20.9%; its likeliest result is an Inter Miami win. Its lean is Inter Miami to win, though the forecast does not make the outcome certain.
The scoring projection points to an open game: over 2.5 goals at 68.1%, against under 2.5 goals at 31.9%. Both teams score in 68% of the model’s scenarios, while at least one side fails to score in 32%. Expected goals are 2 for Inter Miami and 1.6 for New York City FC.
The most likely exact score is 1-1, with 9.8%; next comes 2-1 at 8.3%, followed by 1-2 at 6.8%. The spread across those scorelines underlines the model’s expectation of a competitive match, even as it tilts toward Inter Miami.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is an Inter Miami win (60.7%), then a draw (20.1%), then a New York City FC win (19.2%). The model gives an Inter Miami win 58%, below the bookmakers' 60.7%.