Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
CF Montreal host Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with kick-off at 7:30 p.m. ET. The sides arrive after defeats, and the model makes CF Montreal’s win its likeliest outcome, though its ordering of the outcomes keeps the contest close.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a CF Montreal win (38.7%), then an Atlanta United FC win (35%), then a draw (26.2%). These are estimates; the model’s view gives CF Montreal a narrow edge in the outcome ordering, rather than a clear separation between the sides.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.1% and under 2.5 goals at 51.9%. It gives 51.6% to both teams scoring and 48.4% to at least one side failing to score; that latter outcome does not mean a goalless draw. Expected goals are 1.5 for CF Montreal and 1.1 for Atlanta United FC. The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%) and 0-0 (9.8%), leaving several plausible routes through a fairly tight forecast.
The model’s likeliest result is a CF Montreal win, at 38.7%. Its view is the model gives a CF Montreal win 38.7%, below the bookmakers' 41%.
Form and standings
CF Montreal’s recent sequence is LWLLL, with 1 win and 4 defeats and 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Toronto FC on October 10. That defeat extends a difficult stretch, but the form record also shows a win among those results.