Published September 28, 2026 · Updated September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: San Diego Padres 4–1 Chicago Cubs. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Chicago Cubs visit the San Diego Padres in MLB on Wednesday, September 30, with first pitch at 10:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the San Diego Padres 47.6% to win and the Chicago Cubs 52.4%; its likelier result is a Chicago Cubs win.
The model projects 4.2 runs for the San Diego Padres and 4.4 for the Chicago Cubs, 8.6 in all. Its chance of a win by two runs or more is 30.4% for the San Diego Padres and 34.8% for the Chicago Cubs.
Form and standings
The San Diego Padres finished the regular season at 91-71, with +41 run differential, 722 runs scored and 681 allowed. The Chicago Cubs finished at 89-73, with +147 run differential, 850 runs scored and 703 allowed; the San Diego Padres have the better record.
The San Diego Padres went 4-1 in their last 5 games, with 32 runs scored and 25 allowed, and have 2 straight wins. Their latest result was a 9-4 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 27. The Chicago Cubs went 2-3 in their last 5 games, with 13 runs scored and 12 allowed; their latest result was a 6-2 road win over the Boston Red Sox on September 27.