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Game analysis · MLB

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San Diego Padres 4-1 Chicago Cubs: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 4-1 win for the San Diego Padres over the Chicago Cubs in MLB, Wednesday, September 30: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The San Diego Padres beat the Chicago Cubs 4-1 in MLB on Wednesday, September 30, winning by three runs. The San Diego Padres finished with 8 hits to the Chicago Cubs’ 5, and Gavin Sheets supplied the San Diego Padres’ 1 home run.

The San Diego Padres had 0 errors and the Chicago Cubs had 0. The Chicago Cubs drew more walks, while the San Diego Padres struck out fewer times.

The numbers

The San Diego Padres had 8 hits, 1 home run, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. The Chicago Cubs had 5 hits, 0 home runs, 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.

The San Diego Padres had 0 errors and the Chicago Cubs had 0. The teams scored five runs in all, below the 8.6 the model projected.

Top performers

For the San Diego Padres, Gavin Sheets went 1 for 1 with a home run, 2 RBIs and 1 run scored.

The San Diego Padres starter, Nick Pivetta, pitched 3⅓ innings, allowing 3 hits and 1 run, with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts on 66 pitches. For the Chicago Cubs, starter Kevin Gausman pitched 3⅓ innings, allowing 5 hits and 3 runs, with 1 strikeout on 54 pitches.

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How the model called it

The model’s pregame figures were estimates, not certainties. It gave the San Diego Padres a 47.6% chance to win and the Chicago Cubs a 52.4% chance. Its favorite was the Chicago Cubs to win, and it gave the actual winner 47.6%; the result went against the model's favorite.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

MLB

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Wed, Sep 30 · 10:00 PM ET

Final

4–1

The model before the game

San Diego Padres
47.6%
Chicago Cubs
52.4%

The result went against the model's favourite.

The numbers

San Diego PadresStatisticChicago Cubs
8hits5
1walks3
0errors0
1home runs0
6strikeouts8
Open the Game Center

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