Published September 28, 2026 · Updated September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Final: New York Yankees 9–2 Boston Red Sox. Read the game analysis →
Preview
The Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees in MLB on Wednesday, September 30, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. The game is at Yankee Stadium, where the forecast is 64°F and overcast, wind 4 mph from the south.
The model’s figures are estimates, not certainties. Its likelier result is a New York Yankees win, and it gives the New York Yankees 63.8% to win.
What the model expects
The model projects 4.4 for the New York Yankees and 3.6 for the Boston Red Sox, with 8 in all. Its chance of the New York Yankees winning by two runs or more is 41.1%; for the Boston Red Sox, it is 22.7%.
Pitching matchup
The New York Yankees are expected to start left-hander Max Fried, whose season line is a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 112⅔ innings (20 starts). The Boston Red Sox are expected to counter with right-hander Sonny Gray, whose season line is a 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 169 innings (29 starts). Sonny Gray has the lower ERA.
The probable starters can change before first pitch. In the bullpen, 3.15 is the New York Yankees ERA and 3.00 is the Boston Red Sox ERA; the Boston Red Sox bullpen has the lower ERA.