Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
West Ham host Southampton in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model leans towards West Ham, while the recent records show both sides arriving with results to build on.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a West Ham win (50%), then a Southampton win (27.9%), then a draw (22.1%). These are estimates, and the clearest signal is the model's preference for a home win. Its expected-goals figures are West Ham 2.1 and Southampton 0.9, pointing to a bigger projected scoring return for the hosts. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 58.4% and under 2.5 goals at 41.6%; it gives both teams a chance of scoring at 53.3%, while 46.7% is the estimate for at least one side failing to score.
The likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (10.2%), 1-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.4%). They offer different routes through the model's forecast: a home win to nil, a draw with both sides scoring, and a narrower home win. The leading scoreline is a useful expression of the home-leaning projection, but the alternatives underline that the model does not reduce the match to a single script.
Form and standings
West Ham have 3 wins and 2 draws across 5 games, with 16 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their sequence is WWDDW, listed from the most recent result backwards, and they arrive after a 1-0 away win against Swansea on October 17. They are also on 2 wins in a row. The scoring and defensive record gives the hosts a strong recent platform, while their latest result was decided by a single goal.