Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
West Ham host QPR in the Championship on Friday, October 9 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The central question in Goalorithm’s forecast is whether West Ham can turn the model’s clear preference for a home win into the result on the pitch; a draw remains a meaningful part of its outlook, while a QPR win is less likely.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives West Ham 61.4%, a draw 22.2% and QPR 16.4%; its likeliest result is a West Ham win. Its lean is West Ham to win, with expected goals of 2 for West Ham and 1.1 for QPR. That projection points towards West Ham scoring more, while leaving room for QPR to contribute.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 59.2% and under 2.5 goals at 40.8%, and puts both teams scoring at 58%; its figure for at least one side failing to score is 42%. Those are different ways of describing the possible shape of the game: the goal total can clear the line even if one side is held scoreless, while both can score without guaranteeing a high-scoring match.
The most likely exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. The next listed outcomes are 2-1 at 9.3% and 2-0 at 8.4%. No single score dominates the forecast, but each of those leading scenarios has West Ham ahead or level. The model gives a West Ham win 61.4%, below the bookmakers' 62.8%.
Team news
West Ham have reported J. Veltman (injury), T. Soucek (ankle injury), A. Areola (calf injury), T. Castellanos (injury), K. Mavropanos (inactive) and K. Lamadrid (knee injury). QPR have reported T. Lamptey (injury), R. Kone (injury), B. Kemper (ankle injury), K. Dembele (knee injury), I. Chair (injury) and J. Dunne (knee injury). Line-ups are not announced yet, so those lists are the available team-news picture rather than confirmation of who will start.