Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
West Brom host Birmingham in the Championship on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 a.m. ET, with the fixture set for The Hawthorns, West Bromwich. The model’s outcome order is a West Brom win (41.1%), then a Birmingham win (30.4%), then a draw (28.5%). Recent form offers a different thread to follow: West Brom are without a win in their last 2, while Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 2.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is a West Brom win. Its goals forecast is under 2.5 goals at 63%, against over 2.5 goals at 37%. The model gives both teams to score 43.2%, and puts at least one side failing to score at 56.8%; that latter outcome does not require a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 1.2 for West Brom and 1 for Birmingham. The likeliest exact scores are 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (15.6%) and 1-0 (10.2%). The score probabilities describe specific scorelines, while the match-outcome forecast covers a home win, a draw or an away win. Together, the figures point to a modest expected-goals total and leave more than one route to the final result.
Form and standings
West Brom’s recent sequence is LDWWD, comprising 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away defeat to Wolves on September 20. That run includes a recent defeat, and the side have not won either of their most recent matches.