Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Charlton host Bristol City in the Championship on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 a.m. ET. Bristol City sit above Charlton, while Charlton are without a win in their last 5 and Bristol City arrive after a win. The model’s likeliest result is a Bristol City win.
The match is at The Valley, London. Charlton’s recent sequence includes draws and defeats; Bristol City’s includes wins and defeats. That gives the fixture a clear focus: whether Charlton can turn their run around against a Bristol City side coming off a 1-0 home win against Watford on September 18. The model’s expected-goals figures are close, and its leading scoreline is level.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its ordering is a Bristol City win (41.2%), then a draw (29.8%), then a Charlton win (29%). Expected goals are 1.2 for Charlton and 1.3 for Bristol City, pointing to a closely projected scoring picture. The leading score forecast is 1-1 (15.2%), followed by 0-0 (13%) and 0-1 (8%).
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 55.4%, with over 2.5 goals at 44.6% also in its goals outlook. It assigns 49.6% to both teams scoring and 50.4% to at least one side failing to score. A level scoreline heads the exact-score forecasts, while an away win is also among the leading outcomes. The model’s goals figures suggest a restrained total is more likely than a higher-scoring match, without ruling out either team scoring.