Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Valencia host Villarreal in La Liga on Saturday, October 24, with the model's likeliest result pointing towards the visitors. Valencia's latest match was a 0-0 home draw with Athletic Club on October 17, while Villarreal's was a 0-0 home draw with Elche on October 17.
Kick-off is 12:30 p.m. ET at Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia. The model's probabilities are estimates; its outcome order gives a Villarreal win the leading place in the forecast.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is a Villarreal win. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Villarreal win (45.8%), then a Valencia win (27.4%), then a draw (26.7%). The bookmakers' outcome order is a Villarreal win (44.3%), then a Valencia win (31%), then a draw (24.7%); the model gives a Villarreal win 45.8%, above the bookmakers' 44.3%.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It puts both teams to score at 48%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 52%. That latter figure covers any result in which either side does not score, not only a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 0.9 for Valencia and 1.7 for Villarreal. The model's leading exact score is 1-1 (13%), followed by 0-0 (10.9%) and 0-1 (10.5%). The scoreline estimates include both a draw and a narrow Villarreal win among the listed possibilities, alongside the overall outcome forecast.