Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Racing Santander host Espanyol in La Liga on Saturday, October 24 at 10:15 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Racing Santander win, but its outcome probabilities leave a draw and an Espanyol win in contention. The goal projection points towards a game with chances at both ends, and both sides arrive without a win in their last 4.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcome order is a Racing Santander win (38.7%), then an Espanyol win (34.6%), then a draw (26.7%), with a Racing Santander win its likeliest result. Its expected-goals figures are Racing Santander 1.8 and Espanyol 1.6, putting both sides in range of scoring. The listed exact-score possibilities include goals for each team, rather than a forecast built around one attack doing all the work.
The model assigns over 2.5 goals at 63.5% and under 2.5 goals at 36.5%, with its lean on over 2.5 goals. It gives both teams a 64.6% chance of scoring, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 35.4%. Taken together, those figures point towards an open contest, although the outcome probabilities leave room for either side to take the points or for the teams to share them.
Form and standings
The recent sequences are LDLLW for Racing Santander and LDLLW for Espanyol, with the latest result first. Over that span, Racing Santander have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 17 conceded; Espanyol have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. Both are without a win in their last 4, and Espanyol are without a win in their last 4. The latest results were a 2-0 away defeat to Osasuna on October 18 for Racing Santander and a 1-0 home defeat to Atletico Madrid on October 17 for Espanyol.