Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Alaves host Malaga in La Liga on Friday, October 23, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz. The visitors arrive at the foot of the table, while Alaves have a more secure position; recent form, however, offers neither side much momentum.
The model leans towards Alaves, with its expected-goals figures pointing to a clear gap in attacking output. Its most likely scorelines are narrow home wins, though a goalless draw also features among the leading possibilities.
What the model expects
The model gives Alaves 52.9%, the draw 26.7% and Malaga 20.4%; its likeliest result is an Alaves win. These figures are estimates. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Alaves and 0.6 for Malaga, a profile that places the home side in the stronger position without making a high-scoring game its central expectation.
The model assigns over 2.5 goals at 43.7% and under 2.5 goals at 56.3%. It gives both teams scoring 37.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 62.4%; that latter outcome includes games with a winner as well as a goalless draw. Its leading exact-score possibilities are 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (14.1%) and 0-0 (11.3%). Together, those scorelines describe a match where Alaves may have the edge but where a decisive margin is not the model’s main theme.
Form and standings
Alaves’ recent sequence is LDLLW: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico Madrid on October 10. Malaga’s sequence is DLLDD, comprising 3 draws and 2 defeats and 3 goals scored and 6 conceded; they most recently recorded a 1-1 home draw with Espanyol on October 9. Both teams come into this fixture without a recent win, with Alaves without a win in their last 4 and Malaga without a win in their last 5.