Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Valencia host Athletic Club in La Liga on Saturday, October 17 at 3:00 p.m. ET, at Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. The model points to an away win and a low-scoring game, while the sides arrive with contrasting recent runs.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an Athletic Club win. Its outcome probabilities are estimates: an Athletic Club win (44.8%), then a draw (29%), then a Valencia win (26.2%). Expected goals are 0.7 for Valencia and 1.5 for Athletic Club.
The leading scorelines are 0-1 (15.8%), 0-0 (14.9%) and 1-1 (12.4%). The model leans towards under 2.5 goals: it gives under 2.5 goals at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 36%. It puts both teams scoring at 37.1%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 62.9%. The forecast’s leading scorelines point to a close contest, with the model’s goals outlook centred on a relatively low total.
Form and standings
Valencia most recently recorded a 2-2 away draw with Racing Santander on October 11. Across 5 recent games, their record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 11 conceded; the sequence is DLWLL. They are without a win in their last 2. The goals conceded in that stretch are part of a difficult recent picture for the hosts, though the model still allows for a home win or a draw.
Athletic Club most recently recorded a 0-0 home draw with Alaves on September 19. Their last 5 games brought 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and 6 goals scored and 3 conceded, with the results listed in DDWWL. They are unbeaten in their last 4.