Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Atletico Madrid host Deportivo La Coruna in La Liga on Saturday, October 24 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Atletico Madrid arrive on 5 wins in a row, while Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in their last 5, setting up a meeting between contrasting recent records.
The standings frame the fixture: Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in Primera División with 22 points from 9 games, and Deportivo La Coruna sit 8th in Primera División with 11 points from 9 games. Atletico Madrid sit above Deportivo La Coruna. The match is at Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, with the model pointing towards a home win while still assigning a chance to a draw or an away win.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes run an Atletico Madrid win (73.6%), then a draw (17%), then a Deportivo La Coruna win (9.5%). Its likeliest result is an Atletico Madrid win; its lean is Atletico Madrid to win.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 65.4%, while under 2.5 goals at 34.6%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 63.2%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 36.8%. Those goal projections allow for scoring from either side, but also leave room for a match in which one team does not find the net.
Expected goals are 2.1 for Atletico Madrid and 1.3 for Deportivo La Coruna. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.3%). They include a draw as well as outcomes with Atletico Madrid ahead, so the model’s preferred overall result is not a forecast of a single exact score. The probabilities describe a range of possible outcomes, with an Atletico Madrid win the model’s leading call.
The bookmakers’ outcomes run an Atletico Madrid win (76.5%), then a draw (14.9%), then a Deportivo La Coruna win (8.6%). The model gives an Atletico Madrid win 73.6%, below the bookmakers' 76.5%.