Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Rayo Vallecano host Elche in La Liga on Saturday, October 24 at 8:00 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Rayo Vallecano win, while its projections also give the draw and an Elche win a chance. Its goals lean is over 2.5 goals, adding a scoring angle to a meeting between sides with contrasting recent records.
In the table, Rayo Vallecano sit above Elche: Rayo Vallecano are 14th in Primera División with 8 points from 7 games, and Elche are 18th in Primera División with 7 points from 9 games.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Rayo Vallecano 50.9%, the draw 25.7% and Elche 23.4%; its outcomes from likeliest down are a Rayo Vallecano win (50.9%), then a draw (25.7%), then an Elche win (23.4%). Expected goals are 1.7 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.5 for Elche.
The model’s lean is over 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61.6% and under 2.5 goals at 38.4%. It gives both teams a goal in 63.2% of projections, while 36.8% have at least one side fail to score. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 12.2%; 2-1 at 8.3% and 1-2 at 7.4% complete the leading scorelines.
Form and standings
Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 2. Their recent sequence is DWLWL, amounting to 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-1 away draw with Osasuna on September 19.
Elche are unbeaten in their last 3. Their sequence is DDWLD, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat and 6 goals scored and 5 conceded; their latest outing was a 0-0 away draw with Villarreal on October 17. The standings have Rayo Vallecano at 14th in Primera División with 8 points from 7 games and Elche at 18th in Primera División with 7 points from 9 games.