Published October 26, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Read the preview written before kickoff →
Match report
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle finished level in Eredivisie on Saturday, October 24, with a 1-1 draw after a goalless first half. The final score was 1-1, and the match produced two goals in all. Each team found the net, leaving neither with a winning margin to show for its effort.
The break arrived with Utrecht and PEC Zwolle still at 0-0. The scoreline changed after half-time, but the teams ended the match level. That sequence gives the draw a straightforward shape: neither side had scored by the interval, and both had scored by the final whistle. The match finished with the same score as the model's most likely exact-score forecast, even though the model had named a different most likely outcome.
The numbers
Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Utrecht a win probability of 56.7%, a draw probability of 22.4% and a PEC Zwolle win probability of 20.9%. These probabilities are estimates. The model assigned the actual outcome a probability of 22.4%.
The final score, 1-1, was the model's 1st-likeliest score. That exact-score forecast and the outcome forecast describe different things: one identifies a particular scoreline, while the other concerns whether the match ends in a home win, a draw or an away win. Here, the precise score forecast matched the result, while the model's most likely outcome was Utrecht to win. The distinction is important to the reading of this game; a correct scoreline prediction does not mean the model identified the result category it considered most likely.