Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Utrecht host PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:30 a.m. ET. The model gives Utrecht the edge, while its goal projections point to scoring chances for both sides. These probabilities are estimates; they frame a contest in which the model expects goals but does not rule out a draw.
Utrecht come into the fixture after a 2-1 away win against Twente on October 18, and PEC Zwolle after a 4-1 home win against GO Ahead Eagles on October 18. Both sides' most recent listed results were wins. In the table, Utrecht sit above PEC Zwolle.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Utrecht win (56.7%), then a draw (22.4%), then a PEC Zwolle win (20.9%). Its lean is Utrecht to win. A draw and a PEC Zwolle win also feature in the forecast, so the home win is the model's likeliest outcome rather than its only projected possibility.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 77.1% and under 2.5 goals at 22.9%. Its expected-goals figures are 2.2 for Utrecht and 2 for PEC Zwolle. It puts both teams scoring at 75.6%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 24.4%.
The leading exact-score forecast is 1-1 at 8.9%, followed by 2-1 at 7.1% and 2-2 at 6.9%. A draw is the most likely individual scoreline in that list, while the overall outcome forecast gives a Utrecht win the lead. The score projections span a level result and wins for Utrecht, with a high-scoring draw also among the listed possibilities.