Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
1899 Hoffenheim host Lyon in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The table sets a clear context: Lyon sit above 1899 Hoffenheim, and the model's outcomes are ordered a Lyon win (43.5%), then a 1899 Hoffenheim win (32.8%), then a draw (23.7%). 1899 Hoffenheim are looking for their first points in the competition, while Lyon arrive with 6 points from 2 games already secured.
The model's forecast points towards Lyon, but it also gives 1899 Hoffenheim a substantial share of the outcome probability. With the projected goals close and a level scoreline among the likeliest results, the numbers leave room for a contest decided by fine margins.
What the model expects
These are estimates; the model gives Lyon the edge, with 32.8% for a 1899 Hoffenheim win and 23.7% for a draw. Its expected-goals figures are 1899 Hoffenheim 1.2 and Lyon 1.4. The projection assigns both sides a similar scoring output, rather than pointing to a one-sided forecast.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It gives 53.2% to both teams scoring and 46.8% to at least one side failing to score. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12.4%); the next two are 0-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (8.6%). Those scorelines span a draw, an away win and a goalless draw, so the score forecast does not settle on one clear script. The goal and scoring probabilities also leave both a shared contribution to the goals and a shutout in play.
Taken together, the model's outlook is for a match where Lyon have the stronger chance of taking the points, while the projected scoring remains close. A draw features prominently in the scoreline projections, and the model also includes outcomes in which either side could fail to score.