Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sevilla host Osasuna in La Liga on Monday, October 26, with the model making the home side's win its likeliest result. Sevilla arrive after a heavy defeat, while Osasuna's latest match was a win; the model nevertheless gives the hosts the edge in its forecast. The match is at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla, with kick-off scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Sevilla a win 47.6%, a draw 23.3% and an Osasuna win 29.1%; its likeliest result is a Sevilla win. Its expected-goals figures are 2.4 for Sevilla and 1.5 for Osasuna, pointing to a forecast with chances at both ends rather than a narrow expectation of a low-scoring game.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 72.6% and under 2.5 goals at 27.4%, while its figure for both teams to score is 69.6%; it gives 30.4% to at least one side failing to score. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 9.2%, followed by 2-1 at 8.5% and 3-1 at 6.5%. Those scorelines all include goals for both teams, but the model's broader probabilities allow for a side to be shut out.
Form and standings
Sevilla's most recent result was a 4-1 away defeat to Real Madrid on October 18. Their sequence across 5 games is LDLWW, amounting to 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. They are without a win in their last 3, a run that sits alongside the defeat in their latest outing rather than being erased by it.