Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Santa Clara host Benfica in Primeira Liga on Monday, October 26, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model’s view points towards the visitors, while Santa Clara bring an unbeaten recent sequence into a meeting between sides close together in the table.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model orders the outcomes as a Benfica win (63.4%), then a draw (20.7%), then a Santa Clara win (15.9%), with a Benfica win its likeliest result. Its expected-goals projection is Santa Clara 1.3 and Benfica 2.2, indicating a stronger projected scoring return for the visitors.
The model has over 2.5 goals at 65.9% and under 2.5 goals at 34.1%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 63.6%, while the figure for at least one side failing to score is 36.4%. Those goal projections leave room for either a match in which both sides find the net or one in which a team is shut out.
The likeliest exact-score projections are 1-2 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.5%) and 0-1 (7.5%). They offer three different ways the model sees the contest unfolding: an away win with goals for both sides, a draw, or an away win with Santa Clara failing to score.
Form and standings
Santa Clara’s recent sequence is WDWWD, comprising 3 wins and 2 draws and 8 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their latest listed outing was a 1-0 away win against Casa Pia on October 10. That result extended a run in which they have avoided defeat, and the defensive record across the listed games has been notably tight. The hosts have also scored regularly over that stretch, giving them a solid platform ahead of this test.