Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Estoril host Moreirense in Primeira Liga on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 11:30 a.m. ET. The model’s outcome probabilities are estimates, and its ordering is an Estoril win (44.2%), then a Moreirense win (29%), then a draw (26.8%). The fixture brings together an Estoril side looking to halt a run of defeats and Moreirense, who have also been unable to win in their latest matches.
The game will be played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril. The standings provide context for the meeting: Estoril are 18th in Primeira Liga, while Moreirense are 12th in Primeira Liga.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an Estoril win. Its expected-goals figures are 1.2 for Estoril and 1.1 for Moreirense, indicating closely projected scoring. The model gives under 2.5 goals at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The model assigns 47.6% to both teams scoring and 52.4% to at least one side failing to score. Its likeliest exact scores are 1-1 at 12.1%, 1-0 at 12.1% and 0-1 at 11.1%. Those scorelines point to a narrow contest, with the draw among the model’s leading exact-score outcomes.
Form and standings
Estoril’s sequence across 5 matches is LLLDL: 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. The latest was a 2-1 away defeat to Academico Viseu on October 10, and the current run is 3 defeats in a row. The figures show a difficult spell, with Estoril having scored fewer goals than they have conceded across those matches.