Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Estrela host Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Saturday, October 24 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Both arrive after defeats, and Estrela sit above Casa Pia. Goalorithm’s model puts an Estrela win first among its projected outcomes, with a draw and a Casa Pia win also in its forecast.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is an Estrela win (50.3%), then a draw (27.1%), then a Casa Pia win (22.7%). Its expected-goals estimates are Estrela 1.3 and Casa Pia 1.2, while its likeliest result is an Estrela win.
For the total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 44.7% and under 2.5 goals at 55.3%. It assigns 49.8% to both teams scoring and 50.2% to at least one side failing to score. These are distinct questions: the latter does not mean only a goalless draw, but includes outcomes where one team fails to score.
The leading score forecasts are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11.4%) and 0-1 (10.5%). They span a draw and wins for either club. Taken together, the model’s figures describe several plausible scoring patterns rather than pointing to a single exact score as a certainty.
Form and standings
Estrela’s recent sequence is LLDWD: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. The latest was a 1-0 away defeat to Arouca on October 11, and 2 defeats in a row. The sequence includes wins, draws and defeats, while the latest result extends the current losing run.