Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Alverca host Arouca in Primeira Liga on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:30 a.m. ET. The table picture is clear: Arouca sit above Alverca.
Alverca arrive after a 4-1 away win against Famalicao on October 12; Arouca most recently recorded a 1-0 home win against Estrela on October 11. Those results set the immediate backdrop for a fixture in which the model gives each side a chance of winning and also allows for a draw.
The model’s expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Alverca and 1.1 for Arouca. Its most likely exact score is a narrow home win, though its other leading scorelines cover a draw and an away win.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an Alverca win. Its outcome ordering is an Alverca win (41.8%), then an Arouca win (30.3%), then a draw (27.9%). These probabilities are estimates; the model gives 41.8% to a home win, 27.9% to a draw and 30.3% to an away win.
For total goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 62.6% and over 2.5 goals at 37.4%. It gives 56.3% to at least one side failing to score and 43.7% to both teams scoring. Together with the expected-goals figures, the forecast leaves room for a game in which either side gets on the scoresheet, as well as one in which a team does not.
The model’s likeliest exact score is 1-0 at 13.2%. Next come 1-1 at 12.3% and 0-1 at 12.1%. These are distinct possible scorelines, rather than a single projected outcome: the leading options include a home win, a draw and an away win. The spread across those outcomes is reflected in the model’s probability estimates, with an Alverca win its likeliest result.