Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 17, with kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET. The contrast is sharp: Union Berlin most recently recorded a 1-0 home win against SV Elversberg on October 10, while Borussia Dortmund most recently recorded a 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen on October 9. Goalorithm’s model gives Borussia Dortmund the likeliest result and projects expected goals for both sides.
The recent records and table positions add context to a fixture in which Union Berlin will look to build on its latest result and Borussia Dortmund arrive unbeaten in their last 5. The model points towards a game with goals, with 1-2 its leading exact-score projection.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Borussia Dortmund win (62.5%), then a draw (21.1%), then a Union Berlin win (16.4%). It projects over 2.5 goals at 76.2%, against under 2.5 goals at 23.8%. Both teams score in 71.6% of its projections; at least one side fails to score in 28.4%.
Expected goals are Union Berlin 1.5 and Borussia Dortmund 2.6. The leading exact-score projections are 1-2, followed by 1-1 and 1-3. The model’s stated lean is Borussia Dortmund to win. Its view is that the model gives a Borussia Dortmund win 62.5%, above the bookmakers' 60.2%.
Form and standings
Union Berlin’s recent sequence is WLLLD, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and 5 goals scored and 17 conceded. The latest entry, a 1-0 home win against SV Elversberg on October 10, offers a positive note amid that run. It gives Union Berlin a recent result to build on as they prepare to host Borussia Dortmund.