Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FC Schalke 04 host FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 17, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen. The model’s forecast leans towards the visitors, while the recent results offer a clear contrast: Schalke are without a win in their last 2, and Mainz arrive after a high-scoring defeat.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is an FSV Mainz 05 win, at 42%. It gives Schalke 32.2% and a draw 25.8%; the full ordering is an FSV Mainz 05 win (42%), then an FC Schalke 04 win (32.2%), then a draw (25.8%). The model and bookmakers are aligned on the visitors’ outcome: the model gives an FSV Mainz 05 win 42%, in line with the bookmakers' 42.5%.
The expected-goals figures are 0.7 for Schalke and 2 for Mainz. The most likely scores are 0-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (13.2%) and 1-1 (9.3%). The model gives over 2.5 goals at 50.4% and under 2.5 goals at 49.6%, leaving its goal outlook almost evenly divided. It gives 42.5% to both teams scoring and 57.5% to at least one side failing to score.
Form and standings
Schalke’s recent sequence is LDWDL. Across that spell, they have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to SC Freiburg on October 11. They have 5 points from 5 games and sit 13th in Bundesliga.
Mainz’s sequence is LWLWD, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 13 goals scored and 10 conceded across the same stretch. Their latest match was a 4-3 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on October 10. They have 7 points from 5 games and sit 8th in Bundesliga; FSV Mainz 05 sit above FC Schalke 04. The outcomes are mixed for both sides, though the model’s forecast puts Mainz in front of Schalke.