Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 17 at 9:30 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a VfB Stuttgart win, while its goals forecast points towards an open game. The sides arrive after away wins in their latest listed matches, and the head-to-head record gives this fixture a clear recent backdrop.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives VfB Stuttgart 51.1%, a draw 22.7% and Hamburger SV 26.2%; its likeliest result is a VfB Stuttgart win. Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 81.9% and under 2.5 goals at 18.1%, with a lean towards over 2.5 goals. The model gives both teams scoring 79.7%, while 20.3% is its estimate for at least one side failing to score.
Expected goals are 2.2 for Hamburger SV and 2.4 for VfB Stuttgart. The likeliest exact score is 2-2 at 6.7%; the other listed possibilities are 1-2 at 6.3% and 1-1 at 5.9%. Those scorelines give a sense of the range in the forecast, while the model’s result probabilities express its view of the possible outcomes.
Form and standings
Hamburger SV’s last 5 results read WWLLL, amounting to 2 wins and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 15 conceded. The latest was a 3-2 away win against 1899 Hoffenheim on October 10, and the club is now on 2 wins in a row. Its recent record combines wins with defeats, with the latest listed result a victory away from home.