Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 17 at 9:30 a.m. ET, with the model pointing to a home win as the leading outcome. The table and recent results frame a meeting between a side on an unbeaten run and an opponent whose latest outing ended in defeat.
What the model expects
The model gives Werder Bremen 54.7%, a draw 22.4% and SC Paderborn 07 22.9%; these are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Werder Bremen win. The expected-goals figures are 2.4 for Werder Bremen and 0.8 for SC Paderborn 07, a projection that puts the hosts' scoring contribution at the centre of the forecast.
The model's goals figures put over 2.5 goals at 60.8% and under 2.5 goals at 39.2%. It gives both teams to score 49.5%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 50.5%. The likeliest exact score is 2-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.9%). Those scorelines point to a narrow range of possible outcomes, with the model's top pick featuring a clean sheet for the hosts.
The bookmakers' outcome order is a Werder Bremen win (54.5%), then an SC Paderborn 07 win (23.1%), then a draw (22.4%). The model gives Werder Bremen a win probability of 54.7%, in line with the bookmakers' implied 54.5%. The forecasts therefore tell a similar story about the match, while the model's goal and score projections add detail about how it could unfold.