Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Eintracht Frankfurt host 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga on Friday, October 16, with kick-off at 2:30 p.m. ET at Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt. The model makes Frankfurt the likeliest winner, but Köln arrive above them in the table and with a win in their most recent outing. Frankfurt, meanwhile, are looking to respond after a heavy defeat.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are an Eintracht Frankfurt win (46.3%), then a 1. FC Köln win (31.3%), then a draw (22.4%). Its likeliest result is an Eintracht Frankfurt win, though the margin between the two teams' expected goals is narrow: Eintracht Frankfurt are projected for 2.3 and 1. FC Köln for 2.
The model leans towards over 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 78.9% and under 2.5 goals at 21.1%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 77%, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 23%. The leading exact-score possibilities are 2-1 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.8%) and 1-1 (6.7%). Together, those figures point to an open contest rather than a clear expectation of a one-sided result.
Form and standings
Frankfurt's recent record reads LDWLD: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 16 conceded. Their latest result was a 6-0 away defeat to RB Leipzig on October 10, and they are without a win in their last 2. The scale of that loss makes a response the immediate task, while the form sequence shows that their recent spell has also included a win and draws.