Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Torreense host Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. At Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria, the model’s likeliest result is a Sunderland win, while its goal estimates point towards a match with goals.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Sunderland win (64.6%), then a draw (19.4%), then a Torreense win (16%), and its lean is Sunderland to win.
For the goal total, the model has over 2.5 goals at 59.7% and under 2.5 goals at 40.3%. It gives both teams scoring 54.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 45.4%. These are distinct measures of the match: the goals total and whether both teams score do not describe the same outcome.
The expected-goals figures are 1 for Torreense and 2.2 for Sunderland. The model’s likeliest scorelines are 0-2 at 9.9%, 1-1 at 9.4% and 0-1 at 9.4%. Against the bookmakers’ prices, the model gives a Sunderland win at a lower probability than the bookmakers do: the model gives a Sunderland win 64.6%, below the bookmakers' 69.4%.
Form and standings
Torreense sit 12th in UEFA Europa League with 3 points from 1 game, while Sunderland sit 15th in UEFA Europa League with 3 points from 1 game. In the table, Torreense sit above Sunderland on the same points. Both teams have points on the board, with the model’s lean pointing towards the visitors.