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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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Toronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SC: Match Analysis & Model Review

Toronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SC in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Toronto FC and Orlando City SC shared a 3-3 draw in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, after reaching the interval at 1-1. The final score was 3-3, with six goals across a match that ended level. Both sides finished with three goals and three goals respectively, so neither could turn its scoring return into a win.

The scoreline makes this a high-scoring draw, while the underlying numbers give a more complicated picture of how the teams reached it. Toronto FC recorded 0.49 expected goals and Orlando City SC recorded 1.3; the shot totals and possession figures add further context to the result without changing the fact that the points were shared.

How it unfolded

The first half ended with the teams level at 1-1. That score set up a second half in which the final tally reached 3-3; Toronto FC finished with three goals, and Orlando City SC matched them with three goals.

The available details do not give the order of the goals, so the scoreline tells the story at full time rather than a minute-by-minute account. What is clear is that neither side established a winning margin: the match ended a 3-3 draw after both had contributed to the final total.

The numbers

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Toronto FC had 9 shots, including 4 on target. Orlando City SC recorded 5 attempts, with 1 on target. Expected goals came in at 0.49 for Toronto FC and 1.3 for Orlando City SC, figures that describe the chances generated rather than the number of goals scored.

Possession was 35% for Toronto FC and 65% for Orlando City SC. The corner counts were 2 for Toronto FC and 1 for Orlando City SC; the save totals were 0 and 2 respectively. Taken together, those measures show a match with a substantial share of the ball for Orlando City SC, while Toronto FC registered more attempts. The final score, however, records an even return of goals and a draw.

Standout performers

Toronto FC's highest-rated player was L. Morgan, who received 8.1 and contributed 1 goal. That gives the performance a clear individual marker on the Toronto FC side, alongside the team's share of the scoring.

For Orlando City SC, M. Crépeau was the best-rated player, with a mark of 7.2. The ratings identify one leading performer for each team, while the result itself remained shared.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Toronto FC a win probability of 38.4%, a draw probability of 23.6%, and an Orlando City SC win probability of 37.9%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Toronto FC to win, but it assigned the actual result 23.6%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

That forecast and the final score tell different stories: the model's leading outcome was a Toronto FC win, while the match finished level. The draw probability was the model's estimate for a shared result, and the game ultimately delivered a 3-3 draw.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC

Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET · BMO Field

Full time

3–3

Half-time 1–1

The model before the game

Toronto FC
38.4%
Draw
23.7%
Orlando City SC
37.9%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Toronto FCStatisticOrlando City SC
0saves2
9shots5
2corners1
35%possession65%
0.49expected goals1.3
4shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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